The mainstream media has been hyping a “blockbuster” snow storm for the Northeast later this week, but the National Weather Service (NWS) says not so fast. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 50s, which is too warm for the alleged snow storm that some are excited about.
For the last three days, the NWS office in Upton, NY, which covers Orange County, has been forecasting plain rain beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing until Friday evening. Although there is a slight chance the precipitation may begin as snow if it begins early enough on Thursday, they say it will quickly turn to rain.
The precipitation will come from a strengthening low pressure system coming up from the Mississippi Valley. As it approaches, a warm front will develop well to our south later on Thursday. A cold front is expected to move in late Friday, which may allow for a very brief transition to snow as the precipitation exits the area.
Thursday’s current forecast is for temperatures to rise into the mid 40s as rain arrives, which is far too warm for snow. Even overnight Thursday into Friday, temperatures are only expected to drop to the upper 30s.
On Friday, the temperature is expected soar to 56 degrees as rain continues.
After the precipitation moves out, the temperature is expected to plunge to a chilly 13 degrees on Friday night into Saturday. The NWS cautions that this could cause a “flash freeze,” causing any standing water on roadways or other surfaces to quickly turn to ice.
From Friday through Christmas night, which is on Sunday, the temperatures are not forecast to rise above freezing. Whatever ice forms on the ground on Friday night will be there to stay, at least until after Christmas.
For Ulster and Dutchess Counties, as well as areas north, the NWS office in Albany, NY says the forecast is not much different. Although there is a chance that their precipitation may begin as a rain/snow mix, especially in the higher elevations, it will quickly turn to all rain – even in the Adirondacks. Ulster and Dutchess Counties may even remain all rain without beginning as a mix, they noted.
For Sullivan County, which is governed by the NWS office in Binghamton, NY, precipitation is expected to begin as snow or a wintry mix, but will also eventually transition to plain rain. “Odds are the transition from snow to rain will be quick when it does occur, but timing on when that happens is still uncertain,” Bryan Greenblatt, a meteorologist from NWS Binghamton, explained in a technical discussion.
The 7-day forecast, live weather conditions, live radar, and real-time weather alerts can be seen at Vail’s Gate Tower, operated by The Newburgh News, LLC, here.
