The U.S. Drought Monitor has continued eastern Orange County under a severe drought, according to weekly data released moments ago. If the Farmer’s Almanac is correct, a reprieve to the drought will come soon enough, but some may not like the outcome.
An official drought was first declared in Orange County on July 16, 2022. On August 4, 2022, Orange County was upgraded to a moderate drought. On August 11, the county was upgraded to a severe drought. The severe drought declaration was renewed this morning.
Despite the drought now being official for over a month, New York State Governor Kathy Hochul issued a rather peculiar statement just two days ago. She placed Orange County under a drought watch, meaning conditions may become favorable for a drought to occur. She further stated that severely dry conditions have persisted, but “recent rains have helped.” It is unclear what recent rains she was referring to as Vail’s Gate Tower has only recorded 0.18″ of rain so far this month. Local creeks, ponds and wells have dried up.
In comparison to this month’s two-tenths of an inch of rain so far, August of 2021 brought 5.26″ of rain at the tower, while August of 2020 brought 2.74″ of rain.
The United States experienced its third hottest July on record this year. It was also the nation’s driest July since 2014, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. Vail’s Gate Tower indicated that July of 2022 only brought 1.685″ of rain for the entire month, compared to 3.772″ in July of 2021 and 4.406″ in July of 2020.
The last significant rainfall to impact eastern Orange County was on June 1 and June 2, 2022, when 1.14″ of rain fell. The area has not seen one inch of rain during a single rainfall since that time, which was two and a half months ago.
The areas seven major reservoirs are also taking a beating, but have not yet reached the danger zone. The current capacity of the collective reservoirs is 76.9%, which is 10% lower than the 86.8% normal capacity for this time of year.
The Schoharie Reservoir has plunged to 39.4% capacity. The Cannonsville Reservoir is only 58.6% full. However, the two largest reservoirs – the Pepacton and Ashokan, are each at 75.9% capacity.
The North American Drought Monitor attributes the severe drought to “a rapid-onset dry spell, accompanied by unusual heat.”
The National Weather Service outlook for the remainder of the summer predicts above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. However, conditions may change by the wintertime.
The Farmer’s Almanac has released their outlook for the 2022 to 2023 winter season. Plenty of snow, rain, and mush is all in store for the region, along with record-breaking cold temperatures, according to the Almanac.
“We are warning readers to get ready to shake, shiver, and shovel,” the Farmer’s Almanac declared. The Almanac forecasts the first bite of winter to come earlier than last year’s.
December is expected to be stormy and cold across the nation. An active storm pattern is forecast to develop and then stick around the eastern United States for the remainder of the winter season.
By mid-January, the Almanac says the eastern two-thirds of the country will see one of the coldest outbreaks we have seen in several areas. They forecast some areas may reach -40°F, although it is likely that would be limited to the deep Adirondacks or other traditionally colder areas.
Water restrictions have not yet been ordered, but some officials are asking their residents to voluntarily begin conserving water. In the Town of Newburgh, residential drinking wells have begun drying up. Town officials are making a water tanker available to the public (story here).
