The National Weather Service’s local office in Upton, NY has placed Orange County under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for a threat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow.
“Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds is the greatest hazard,” the Hazardous Weather Outlook states. Orange County is also in the outer edge of a tornado risk predominantly centralized across the Albany region.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, which is responsible for tracking larger storm outbreaks across the country, has also placed the Hudson Valley under a risk for severe thunderstorms.
A trough is expected to shift eastward through daybreak Saturday. An associated low pressure system will migrate eastward during the daytime as a cold front also moves east across New England. A moist atmosphere will destabilize through midday Friday. Mid-level winds aloft will contribute to storm organization.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast by the mid-afternoon hours, mainly in the form of multicellular clusters and bands of storms, according to the SPC. A few supercells are possible, along with a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado within the most intense storms.
The storm activity is expected to diminish during the evening as the system pushes east of the coast.
The chance of rain comes during a prolonged drought impacting much of the area throughout the summer. The latest data issued today continues eastern Orange County in a severe drought despite 1.2″ of rain recorded at Vail’s Gate Tower on Monday. This brings the rainfall total so far this August to 1.63″, which is abnormally low.
In comparison, August of 2021 brought 5.26″ of rain to Vail’s Gate Tower. August of 2020 saw 2.74″ of rain. In August of 2019, 2.598″ of rain was recorded.
This June and July were also abnormally dry. The drought was officially declared on July 16, 2022.
Vail’s Gate Tower is a weather tower operated by The Newburgh News. See live weather alerts, current weather conditions, the 7-day forecast, fire weather, and much more at Vail’s Gate Tower on The Newburgh News’ webpage.
