Friday, September 29, 2023

Calm Before The Storm: Thunderstorms & Tornadoes Possible Tonight

As foggy conditions linger late this morning, so-called weather experts say we could see severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes tonight.

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma is highlighting the Hudson Valley in their national threat risk. The SPC monitors major severe weather outbreaks across the country.

A storm system currently to the south will move northeast and strengthen as locally dense fog burns off across the Hudson Valley and temperatures quickly rise to near 70 degrees. New storms will begin to develop with the unstable air, creating widely scattered thunderstorms.

According to the SPC, a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging wind gusts exceeding 57 mph and a few tornadoes. “Bow echoes”, storm structures uncommon for this area which often spawns tornadoes, are possible. Although the strongest of the winds may not reach ground level, even sub-severe winds in this system will be capable of minor structural damage and downed trees, they said.

The local NWS office in Upton, New York says the timing for these storms will likely be later than is typically seen with a broken line of storms of this type.

Storms are expected to begin moving into the western portion of Orange County after 8pm, according to NWS Upton. The best chance for strong thunderstorms will be between 9:00pm to 11:00pm tonight. By that point, the convection is expected to substantially weaken due to the loss of daytime heating.

NWS Upton has already placed the region under a Hazardous Weather Outlook. Either a Tornado Watch or a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be posted later today. Check back for urgent updates.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s map outlining today’s threat for severe weather outbreaks.

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